❄️ Good News for Snow Forecasting: SSUM-Snow Fusion-F1 Shows a Positive Gain Over Archived NBM
A simple fusion of archived NBM guidance and a frozen structural snow signal improved snow-event discrimination in a reserved 2026 historical test Can a structural snow signal add useful information to already strong numerical weather guidance? That was the question behind the latest SSUM-Snow experiment. And the result is encouraging. In a reserved January-March 2026 historical test, SSUM-Snow Fusion-F1 improved both ROC AUC and PR AUC over the declared archived NBM comparator . The test covered 720 station-date cases across eight U.S. stations, including 238 snow events. The improvement is not huge. But it is positive, reproducible through the published project pathway, and supported by source-parity verification . That makes it worth sharing. 🌨️ What is SSUM-Snow Fusion-F1? The idea is deliberately simple. SSUM-Snow already had a frozen structural predictor called SPF1 . Fusion-F1 asks a practical question: Can SPF1 contribute some useful information when combined with NBM? Th...